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MONETART CONSTITUENT OF INVESTMENT SECURITY

INTRODUCTION

 

Our study is related to the issues of investment security with an emphasis on internal and external risk factors.  Our main objective is to reveal the importance of improving investment climate and establishing trust among investors through various means of economic policy.  Most of the contemporary theories and concepts on mentioned issues are based on the assumption that foreign direct investments (FDI) play a role of forceful engine to speed up the rates of economic growth.  More particularly, this approach was adopted by many post-communist countries and their governments anticipating massive inflow of external financial resources into the real sector of economy.  Moreover, FDI were given certain priority to resolve an entire constellation of challenges associated with the economic and social reforms.  Despite the immense volumes of investments, specifically, involved in the overall process of privatization and related projects, as well as loans landed by the international financial organizations and western governments to the newly established private sector, rare examples may serve as trends to be continued in the years to come.  In most of the newly independent states special law on “Protection of FDI” was adopted to protect foreign direct investments.  This instrument, however, was better used by former communist “oligarchs” to launder the money from hidden sources in “off shores”, register companies with western style brands and repatriate them and use legally with even better terms and privileges taking advantages of mentioned laws.  In most of the cases such “foreign” companies were establishing joint ventures with “locals” and benefiting from tax holidays.  In some countries like Armenia, only after careful examination of mentioned trends, tax benefits were lifted while implementing “second generation” reforms.  We, therefore, presume that the basic terms need to be one and the same for foreign and local investors. Furthermore, in some cases special attention is required for local investments based on a notion that less foreign investment may be anticipated if the local companies and individuals face luck of trust and be reluctant to invest in their homeland.  Given this we believe a concept need to be developed covering the issues related to the IS environment and its continuous improvement.

 

CONTEMPORARY ISSUES RELATED TO INVESTMENT SECURITY

 

Defining Investment Security

We might attempt to define the investment security (IS) and state that it is such an order of segments in the investment environment, and its institutions when pledged growth, and protection of socially oriented economy, and financial markets along with the sum of financial relations, and processes of nation.  IS is also the ability and readiness of investment institutions to create mechanisms of utilization and protection of interests of national economy, and finances within the framework of investment policy implantation.

 

Attractive investment climate is a vital precondition for efficient investment activities in priority sectors and for generating new sources for tax revenues to the state budget.  Insuring investments from non-commercial risks and passing them from the investor to the insurance company for a fee plays a major role in supporting investment security.  Insurance of investments allows to creating needed conditions for setting up investment funds, as well as providing government guarantees for implementing priority investment projects.

 

Insurance protection of investment projects is being done by and large in case of following groups of risks related to: changes in market structure and reliability of partners; emergencies as natural disasters, fires, robberies, etc.; technology crash and intellectual property protection; non returned loans in foreign trade and others.  In parallel to it systems of insurance, re-insurance and providing guarantees from non returned loans may be created to strengthen the trust in investment returns.

 

Attempting to prioritize: foreign or local investments?

Search for foreign investments is justified since the local sources may not be sufficient to support the growth of the real sector of economy with justified economic strategy and policy of long term investments. Issuing Eurobonds in different denominations of local and foreign currencies and selling local securities to non residents are among various forms of attracting foreign investors.  However, if the debt of foreign investors is being re-financed by issuing new state bonds in world markets, then the foreign debt of the State also starts to boost.  In case of sudden and simultaneous order to redeem the bonds in big volumes of foreign debt the State may face financial default and economic crisis.  From the other hand increasing volumes of foreign debt is resulting in vast amount of obligatory payments, and to erosion of state budget.  In order to maintain investment security for sustainable development state bonds need to be issued considering the volume of foreign liquidity and budget resources for their payment.

 

IS may be maintained through foreign direct investments in joint ventures and establishment of foreign subsidiaries.  In this case IS for the nation is also an advantage to foreign investor in terms of:

–                      access to raw materials and natural resources;

–                      penetrating new markets;

–                      utilizing the resources of qualified labor with relatively low cost for its reproduction;

–                      commercializing research for introducing new competitive products in foreign markets.

 

Besides providing proper level of IS locally, participating in joint ventures gives an opportunity to the host partner:

–                      to have an access to foreign technologies benchmarks;

–                      accumulate new sources for local investments;

–                      utilize foreign experience and “know-how”;

–                      use better systems of production and management;

–                      reduce unjustified imports and expenses in hard currency;

–                      increase the volume of local finished goods exports.

 

At the meantime, IS may become feasible due to the state strategy program to attract foreign direct investments, particularly in the production of consumer goods, in construction, and other priority areas by state guarantees in developing countries, when needed.  IS may also be defined as an ability of State to eliminate economic threats related to the creation and maintenance of healthy and competitive investment climate.  Among them – political instability, crime rate, unstable activities or malfunctioning of  related industries, high level of inflation or hyperinflation, subjective treatment of bureaucrats in starting up a new business or modifying the terms for maintaining the existing one, expressions of discriminations, unfair competition, ever-changing Tax code or Customs code, to name a few.

 

IS is not only the task of the host government and local businesses, it strongly depends on the behavior of other players, too.   Among them – foreign citizens, companies, organizations, associations and other entities allowed to make investments in accordance with the local and international laws and regulations, as well as foreign governments and international organizations.  All mentioned players may invest in all different spheres of activities except those that are forbidden by law for foreign residents, are under direct government control, or require special license to practice particular type of business.

 

In order to generate sufficient amount of foreign investments investors need to be given IS in form of providing favorable and attractive conditions for investment activities.  Advantages are intended to encourage foreign business activities in local markets while reinvesting earned profits, gathered funds and resources in the same or other areas.  Investment advantages are being provided when the volume of investments reach anticipated volumes in designated priority industries of host nation or special investment projects as information technologies, modern equipment and service industry.

 

Overall, IS of the nation need to be based on the strategy of growth of the financial market, since its’ dynamic structure may strongly impact on sustainable development and make the economy attractive and competitive.

 

IS cannot be viewed apart from the other forms of economic security.  Acceptable level of IS may be reached when the economic welfare of the host nation, economic priorities of economy are in harmony with the interests and the rights of foreign investors.

 

In sum, IS may be defined as a state of economy when local and foreign investors have equal and sufficient trust to contribute required amount of funds in form of human, natural, financial, industrial and other resources in the overall process of economic growth.

 

This means that investment security need to be granted high priority by the government in terms of eliminating investment risks, including expropriation, repudiation of contracts and discrimination and by granting a status of most favored nation treatment to investors.  IS becomes more feasible not only by the efforts of local Government.  Membership in World Bank’s Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency (MIGA) clearly demonstrates given nation’s commitment to create attractive investment climate and protect the interests of foreign and local investors.  International Centre for the Settlement of Investment Disputes also plays a key role in reaching the goals related to IS.  Usually the State creates Investment Promotion agencies or departments based on corresponding laws, particularly, Investment Promotion or Foreign Investments Protection and other Acts protecting against expropriation, cancellation of contracts and discrimination and others.

 

In some cases foreign investments are being politicized:  certain advantages are being granted to strategic partners rather than to everyone.  IS assumes actions against threats to national interests. In particular, “Exon-Florio Amendment” provided selective executive branch screening on national security grounds of foreign acquisition of control of businesses in the United States. This allows the President the authority to block the activities in case foreign owners “might take action that threatens to impair the national security” and if other laws “do not, in the President’s judgment provide adequate and appropriate authority” to protect the national security (Hunt, 2006).

 

While protecting investment security, relevant threats must be considered: lobbying to set rules for protectionism; complicated tax policies and tax code discouraging foreign investors; the risk of apparent xenophobia.

 

Investment security through monetary integration

IS may not be established in a country where either local or foreign investments are dominating.  Threatening dependence from external sources may be established in case of dominating foreign (sometimes politicized) investments with a lack of local investor trust, and unattractive climate will be present in case of rare, occasional and insufficient foreign investments and prevailing share of local investments. A balanced and effective approach to reach anticipated level of IS may be adequate degree of diversification of investment sources locally and internationally.  In some countries tax breaks or certain limits for investments are established to promote more local and foreign investments.  IS is also related to better investment opportunities in small towns and remote territories in order to equalize the levels of economic development between urban and rural areas.

 

Finally, the latest global financial crisis made conspicuous that the real investment security may be reached only in case of careful consideration of various component s of economic policy, more specifically, paying focal attention to its monetary constituent. Our study clearly demonstrates a link between investment and monetary policies.  In addition, we believe the ability of the state to pledge monetary stability and security need to be examined.

 

In order to better understand the essence of monetary security (MS) it is significant to disclose the role of money.  The reason why monetary integration is considered to be the peak of economic integration is because of the change of the role of money itself in the global economy.  Since the time of Karl Marx when the famous theory on the money functions was written, the role of money had been changed considerably.  Measure of value, means of payment, means of circulation, means of hoarding and of world money underwent serious evolution during the past two centuries. First, the gold does not perform the function of world money.  Convertible hard currencies – US dollar and euro mainly perform this function, although none of the central banks worldwide ceased gold from liquidity reserves for MS reasons.  Second, credit money and non-cash circulation had reduced dramatically the amount of money in circulation and thus limited the function of money as means of circulation.  Other functions of money also experienced essential transformation, however the role of money and monetary relations play greater role than the basic functions. During the dawn era of capitalist production monetary relations served the process of production and the relations in the process of production determined the nature of monetary relations. Today monetary relations not only gained weight and sovereignty, moreover, they may be strong enough to impact on the process of production and determine its´ further destiny.  Monetary policies have even more impact on investment flows and investment security. Depending on the nature of monetary relations, the supply and demand equilibrium, production process can be more or less costly, therefore – more or less competitive, and in turn be continued or ceased.  Financial markets themselves maintain significant impact on the process of production.  Given the new and changing terms surrounding local, regional and global economies, the means to reach sufficient level of MS and IS and are being seriously modified thus having different impact on various nations depending on the level of economic development.

 

The overall nature of MS had been changed as well.  From a part of local and regional problems of economic stabilizations MS associated with financial risk management and floating exchange rates and mass currency flows impacting local investments became a priority issue for the nations worldwide.  MS deals with currency interventions, exchange rates fluctuations, inflation or hyperinflation rates, as well as to work out better rules and regulations for security houses, other non-bank financial institutions, and non-monetary policies related to unfair competition, subsidizing exports and dumping causing major obstacles for favourable investment climate and sustainable development. MS considers the significant impact of money on economic policy, through better use of banks for monetary and currency intervention and others.  High level of MS allows further developing monetary integration and reducing the costs of economic transactions associated with foreign trade, FDI and others, thus leading to an increase of economic efficiency and competitiveness of goods and services.

 

Basic ingredients of MS based on monetary integration relate to the freedom of foreign economic relations, alterability of exchange rates, international liquidity, and sovereign means of regulating the balance of payments along with the data on foreign holding of key currencies need to be taken into account (Russell, 1973).  Therefore, MS is based on the convergence of monetary policies primarily depends on the efficiency of coordinating the exchange rates and the adjustment of inflation, if needed.  This in turn, presumes a move from regulating the strategies on currencies and exchange rates to a well designed monetary policy.

 

Monetary security and investment security

MS creates confidence and trust for IS brings together trading and strategic partners, reduces high transaction costs of doing business in many currencies, manage and control the processes associated with devaluations and revaluations of currencies and to block spreading the negative effects of deficient monetary and economic policy from country to country.  MS is more obtainable in regional blocks and benefits nations participating on higher levels of economic integration, particularly the on the highest level — political and economic union such as the MS reached through the formation of European Monetary System in 1979 and introduction of single European currency –Euro in 2001.

 

MS may also result from gradual elimination of obstacles to further trade liberalization, and currencies exchange rates fluctuations risks, later – by coordinating monetary and fiscal policies, introducing single currency or average value of the basket of currencies and finally, fixing the rules and regulations in local legislation and international agreements.

MS is mostly demanded whenever there are natural foundations for economic and political integration and when the currencies still create problems for investments, fair business practices and economic, financial and monetary disorders (market imbalances).  Also, it might be included in the agenda when the “short sales” of some currencies at global financial markets further depreciates them against other key currencies, and when the governments are escalating their debt through the increase of money supply and non-backed debt guarantees.

 

Gradually, more sophisticated forms of monetary integration allowed countries to reduce the currency risks and make the debtor keener to pay the debt obligations due to the concern of punishment measure from other nations.   This mainly applies to regional monetary integration.  Each of mentioned factors, particularly the change of interest rates is able to bring to a chain of changes of others and consequently cause a change in volumes of investments as well.

 

Today more than ever MS is linked to IS, and in turn, to political, economic, and financial integration. MS may only be based on strong political integration and commitment.  Therefore, it seems almost infeasible that the activities of the European Central Bank in the European System of Central Banks could be possible without a capable European Parliament. From the other hand political integration necessitates monetary and financial integration and compels economic policy makers accountable to better coordinate economic policies, attract new investments by making exchange rates more predictable.  In turn, the later may be reached by regulating the balance s of payments and the residues of trade turnovers, dynamic changes of mass flows of capitals, monetary and currency interventions, inflation or deflation and the interest rates. Links between monetary integration and political integration are becoming more active along with the shift from one form of economic integration to another.  In turn, political integration is considered an essential precondition for the foreign policy in all areas undergoing minor or major transformations. Also, changes in interest rates lead to distributional outcomes since the distribution of income and wealth is more evident expressed in public spending and taxes (Eichengreen, 1996).  In addition, local government’s fiscal tasks of taxation remain the backbone of both political and economic independence.  Broader international monetary and fiscal integration compels to come up with a proper mechanism of political integration to accomplish these goals.  Fairly equal taxation of incomes and profits need to be translated to their equal distribution and to a reasonable social well fare in all countries.  This will allow implementing proper monetary policies with thorough political surveillance to reach desirable level of MS and IS.

 

MS inevitably presumes financial integration, predominantly being fixed in precise laws and regulations called fiscal legislation.  Finally, some countries participating in monetary integration always encounter different problems to be solved at the others expense.  Bigger demand for investments and loans in one country, for example, may bring to certain increase of interest rates in all countries. However, given the current state of liberalization of monetary relations and global capital markets, it might be lower than expected regionally. Otherwise political integration may put certain limitations and restrictions to the monetary integration foundations through the changes in relevant laws and regulations avoiding deficit spending, hyperinflation, etc.

 

Current perceptible trends of diminishing “currency risks” and growing disinclination of participating nations to over-borrow at others’ expense due to anticipated sanctions by others clearly displays the advantages of monetary integration and its’ relationship with the financial integration.   Moreover, countries that are still reluctant to sacrifice another portion of national sovereignty for the monetary integration realize that have nothing to lose but benefit in case of financial integration.  The latter is being recognized as a close cooperation between governments, Central Banks, state and commercial banks, and non-bank financial institutions to minimize and better manage credit risks for financial security and IS for the sake of free and fair competition.

 

Financial defaults in a number of countries call for more focused consideration of preventive measures in order to avoid monetary, banking, investment and financial defaults and achieve MS.  Even countries economically involved in diverse regional blocks are motivated in monetary and financial integration. Economic cycles strongly depend on given favourable or reverse monetary conditions promoting foreign trade of nations: natural or artificial appreciations of currencies hurt export industries through reduction of investments injections while competitors benefit from opposite trends.

 

An overall trend towards coordination of monetary policies concentrating on exchange rate targeting and on currency boards becomes extremely essential. Since the first years of the twenty first century banking not always and not accurately reveals the features of deteriorating industry: instead, capital markets better indicate the real situation.

 

More attention is being paid by the experts to risk management and monetary vulnerability. In order to have a realistic look at coming years it is indispensable to consider the experience of current and past challenges to design and implement economic and monetary policies.  From 1944 to 1971 the post-war economies were recovered and further grown in a free market environment, whereas forced fixed rate system and artificial low price of gold seriously harmed economic growth worldwide.  Such basic ingredients of the cost of gold as wages, transportation costs, expenses related to the production of gold grew steadily having no impact on the price of gold. At the meantime the currencies of fast growing economies in Germany, France and others became stronger, however, accepting the dominant role of the US dollar in world markets. European Union countries, being among developed market economies contradict the market laws by limiting the competition mainly within the region; equalizing different trends through monetary, financial, and political integration:  many countries like Spain, Portugal, and Greece still need to catch up and continue to take advantage of high levels of competitiveness of others. In case of opposing broader economic convergence, limited monetary integration aimed to sustain stability by such artificial means as currency interventions, increasing or decreasing money supply and others may not be able to hide current discrepancies: it might only delay the time of economic and political collapse.  Effects of the US dollar and Euro appreciations are different at home and abroad with their different impact on local environment for investments and for world economies. Lessons from the monetary integration in former Soviet Union with the single currency for 15 nations and the “rouble zone” are not yet analyzed to be considered for the future.

 

Further efforts to reduce the risks associated with MS and IS depend on a wide variety of factors and trends. Despite the discussions on the prospects of the return to the fixed rates system, it appears unrealistic due to two basic factors: the growing interest of those who makes money on floating rates is incomparable to those making theoretical assumptions, and fixed rates monetary system might recreate serious impediments to for money supply resulting in high prices, inflation, unemployment, thus slowing down investment flows and the overall economic growth.  Monetary integration may be achievable mostly on a regional level. While almost no sign of monetary integration on global level appears feasible in the years to come, however, international efforts will be needed to reduce currency and credit risks around the world. Given the growing interdependence of local economies, monetary integration at the coordination level will be required and meetings of heads of nations on monetary issues will become more common and frequent measure of counterbalancing monetary and financial shocks and achieving MS and IS.

 

In coming years regional monetary integration and global coordination of monetary policies can impact positively on substantial reduction of “shadow economy” particularly in developing countries through financial and banking integration by making credit money to those companies adhering Basel-2 principles and maintaining monetary and financial transparency for financial service providers.  Considering further loss of economic independence in parallel with expanding and intensifying monetary integration self-adjustable fiscal stabilizers will be of more use, therefore financial transfers will be a better alternative to the exchange rate changes in case of compensating  distinctive market imbalances.  Also, better monetary integration will increase investment flows and bring to the continuous transformations of economic, financial and banking systems of participating nations.

 

Globally, MS is less achievable since there is no precise monetary system in the world economy. Monetary systems are becoming more diversified based on regional trends and developments. Currencies of emerging market economies like CIS countries are floating, others are in managed float, key international currencies (US dollar, Euro) are in frequent changes due to interventions, and other national currencies are tied to convertible currencies.

 

Competitive advantages of nations will require different approaches to solve MS and IS issues for each sector and branch of industry and the national economy.  Balances of payments and trade balances will heavily depend on the outcome of bilateral and multilateral monetary integration.  It is also possible that national currencies may become gradually oriented to the world basket of commodities prices.  Coming to EURO, it may be used further for local and foreign investments not only by EU member countries, but also others (countries in CIS, Africa and the Middle East), that aside from geographical considerations, might prefer stable currency with predictable exchange rate to better solve the issues related to local, regional and global MS. Japanese yen and Chinese Yuan might emerge as international key currencies and preferable resources for investments backed by markets composing centres of power in the world economy.  EURO and the US dollar will find better means and ways of co-existence without major exchange rates shocks, but rather considering interests of sustainable growth of the world economy benefiting all parties for a long run.  Based on current trends, MS and IS become more feasible regionally with possible introduction of “amero” or other single currency between North and South Americas, as well as in South and South East Asia, Africa and CIS.  And the role of gold may change but not similar to the role performed in the past: it will be considered as an indirect factor of monetary stabilization by regional and global institutions (Mundell, Robert, 1997).

.

 

CONCLUSIONS

 

Thus we may conclude that investment security largely depends on internal and external risk factors. Although most of the contemporary theories and concepts on mentioned issues are based on the assumption that foreign direct investments (FDI) play a role of forceful engine to speed up the rates of economic growth, we believe local investments carry foremost importance reflecting trust in favorable climate and stability in homeland.  IS, therefore, is such an order of segments in the investment environment, and its institutions when pledged growth, and protection of socially oriented economy, and financial markets along with the sum of financial relations, and processes of nation.  IS is also the ability and readiness of investment institutions to create mechanisms of utilization and protection of interests of national economy, and finances within the framework of investment policy implantation.

 

Also, attractive investment climate is a vital precondition for efficient investment activities in priority sectors and for generating new sources for tax revenues to the state budget.  At the meantime, search for foreign investments is justified since the local sources may not be sufficient to support the growth of the real sector of economy with justified economic strategy and policy of long term investments.

 

Overall, IS of the nation need to be based on the strategy of growth of the financial market, since its’ dynamic structure may strongly impact on sustainable development and make the economy attractive and competitive.

 

IS cannot be viewed apart from the other forms of economic security.  Acceptable level of IS may be reached when the economic welfare of the host nation, economic priorities of economy are in harmony with the interests and the rights of foreign investors.

 

In sum, IS may be defined as a state of economy when local and foreign investors have equal and sufficient trust to contribute required amount of funds in form of human, natural, financial, industrial and other resources in the overall process of economic growth.

 

The latest global financial crisis made conspicuous that the real investment security may be reached only in case of careful consideration of various component s of economic policy, more specifically, paying focal attention to its monetary constituent. Our study clearly demonstrates a link between investment and monetary policies.  In addition, we believe the ability of the state to pledge monetary stability and security need to be examined.

 

High level of MS allows further developing monetary integration and reducing the costs of economic transactions associated with foreign trade, FDI and others, thus leading to an increase of economic efficiency and competitiveness of goods and services.

 

Today more than ever MS is linked to IS, and in turn, to political, economic, and financial integration. MS may only be based on strong political integration and commitment.

 

Financial defaults in a number of countries call for more focused consideration of preventive measures in order to avoid monetary, banking, investment and financial defaults and achieve MS.

 

 

Endnotes:

 

Eichengreen, Barry, On the links between monetary and political integration, University of California, Berkley 1996.

Hunt, Cecil,  Foreign investment security fight commentary: What ‘protection’ does the U.S. have? MarketWatch  March 10, 2006

Mundell, Robert, The International Monetary System in the 21st Century: Could Gold Make a Comeback? Columbia University, Lecture delivered at St. Vincent College, Letrobe, Pennsylvania, March 12, 1997.

Robert W. Russell suggested a concept at the conference on Financial and Monetary Aspects of Developing Multinational Enterprises. (Nottingham, England), April, 1973.

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